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Burden of Disease - accuracy of estimates

 Condition State estimates LGA estimates  Comment
Deaths (all conditions) excellent  excellent  Good vital registration data. Use of five years of death data improves accuracy of LGA estimates. 
Infectious Disease      
HIV/AIDS good  good  Differences in HIV/AIDS deaths a fair indication of spread in disability. 
Lower respiratory infections good  good  Based on SEIFA and rurality difference in admissions. 
Neonatal conditions      
Low birth weight excellent  excellent  Good data on neonatal conditions as almost all babies born in hospital. 
Cancers excellent  excellent  Good data from cancer registry, synthetic estimates very similar to observed numbers. 
Diabetes fair  fair  Derived from self-reported prevalence of NIDDM adjusted upwards by 50% to take account of underreporting. IDDM prevalence extrapolated from Tasmanian register. LGA differentials based on SIFA and rurality in National Health Survey. 
Mental disorders      
Alcohol dependence, depression, anxiety + personality disorders good  good  Derived from good quality survey data for whole of Australia. LGA differentials based on SEIFA and rurality in same survey. Relative lack of information on the average duration and severity of mental disorders. 
Heroin dependence poor  no information  Poor data sources due to difficulty in collecting information on a group of people often not included in 'normal' surveys. Estimates are no more than 'ball park' figures but undoubtedly large and growing number of young adults are affected. 
Bipolar disorder fair  no information  Derived from international prevalence estimates. 
Schizophrenia good  no information  Estimates of prevalence confirmed by "Low Prevalence Study", part of the mental health survey which specifically measured psychotic disorders. 
Attention-deficit and hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) poor  no information  Victorian estimates based on overseas prevalence. No local source. 
Neuro and Sense disorders      
Dementia good  fair  Based on overseas data but prevalence by age stable across many countries. Mortality data for dementia prone to differences in coding practices and therefore not a very good proxy for LGA differences. 
Epilepsy fair  no information  Based on overseas data, no local let alone LGA information. 
Parkinson good  no information  Based on overseas data, no local let alone LGA information. 
Other vision disorders good  no information  Based on local survey data of good quality, no LGA data. 
Hearing loss good  no information  Based on good SA survey, probably applies to Victoria; no LGA data. 
Cardiovascular disease      
Ischaemic heart disease good  good  Based on hospital data for infarction and survey data for angina. 
Stroke good  good  Good data from hospitals with some adjustments based on epidemiological studies for non-hospitalised cases, number of first-ever stroke cases and level of severity. 
Other CVD fair  fair  Extrapolated from hospitalised cases. 
Chronic respiratory disease      
COPD fair  reasonable  Based on community study from WA. Reasonable assumption of LGA variation according to mortality differences. 
Asthma fair  fair  Based on Australian studies which used results based on hyperresponsiveness test rather than the larger self-reported figures. LGA differences implied from self-reported asthma in national health survey. 
Digestive disorders      
Liver Cirrhosis fair  reasonable  Based on admission data but community prevalence hard to estimate. Reasonable to use mortality as proxy for LGA differences. 
Genito-urinary diseases      
Nephritis/nephrosis good  good  From disease register of renal failure. 
Benign prostatic hypertrophy reasonable  good  Data on incidence consistent with other data sources. Lack of knowledge of natural history of disease and rate of complications post-surgery (filled in with "expert opinion"). LGA differentials based on admission data for surgery. 
Infertility fair  no information  Prevalence from one epidemiological study. Unknown LGA differentials. 
Musculoskeletal disorders      
Rheumatoid arthritis fair  no information  Based on overseas data. 
Osteoarthritis fair  poor  Based on overseas data. LGA differentials from self-reported arthritis in national health survey which we discarded as a credible source of prevalence. 
Oral health      
Dental caries fair  no information  Reasonable data on prevalence but weak estimates of average duration and severity of symptoms. Unknown LGA differentials. 
Injuries excellent  excellent  Based on area-specific data of injuries that presented at accident and emergency departments or were admitted. 

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Last updated: 12 March, 2009
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